 |
|
General Questions
A detailed report on the study will be posted
on this site in the near future. Q. What is the Internet Economy? The Internet Economy is made up of companies directly generating all or some part of their revenues from Internet or Internet-related products and services. These companies are the Internet infrastructure and Internet applications players, such as Cisco, Dell, IBM, HP, Oracle, Microsoft and Sun, whose products and services make it feasible to use the Internet for electronic commerce. For example, IBM sells servers and PCs that are used to gain access to the Internet. Similarly, 3Com sell modems and Cisco sells routers, all used to gain access to the Internet. The Internet-related revenues from these companies, for example, are included in the estimates for the entire Internet Economy. Then there are companies selling products and services over the Internet. This includes pure Internet based sellers like Amazon.com and eToys.com as well as bricks-and-mortar companies, such as LL Bean and Alaska Airlines, who are also conducting a part of their business on the Internet. Further, electronic intermediaries or Internet middlemen, such as Ebay or Etrade, who act as catalysts by facilitating the interaction between buyers and sellers. So the overall Internet Economy is made up of the revenues of infrastructure and applications players, electronic intermediaries and online sellers. It is important to point out that the Internet Economy is not just a collection of 'high-tech' companies. It includes any company that generates revenues from the Internet. For example, a part of the revenues generated by traditional telecommunications companies are counted in this economy since they carry IP traffic over their miles and miles of copper, coaxial and fiber lines. We did not, however, count all revenues from all technology companies. Not even 100% of Cisco's revenues were considered to be part of the Internet Economy, since not all networking devices are attached to the Internet. Q. How did you measure the Internet Economy? There were two important steps to how we measured the Internet Economy. The first was to develop a conceptual framework and taxonomy for attributing revenues and employees in the Internet Economy. Since the manner in which businesses operate in the Internet Economy can vary substantially, we decided to group companies based upon core business activities. The Internet can be thought of as a network of networks, made up of many component parts. This may consists of networking hardware, networking software, servers, PCs, Web software, Web designers, Web operators, and the companies that are actually doing business one the Web. There is a natural structure or hierarchy to the Internet that can be directly traced to how businesses generate revenues. Based upon this type of structure, we use the following four-layer architecture to group companies, revenues and employees. We call these four layers, the Internet Economy Indicators.
Finally, extensive secondary research was used and included reports from IDC, Dataquest, Forrester, Dell'Oro and many other research firms. The World Wide Web proved to be the most effective source of information on companies involved in the Internet economy. Q. Do the Internet Economy Indicators include economic activity generated by intranets and extranets as well as the Internet? The Internet Economy Indicators focus only on Internet related activities and revenues. It does not capture any revenues or transactions that occur over private corporate intranets or extranets. However, the networking infrastructure hardware purchased for corporate intranets and extranets is taken into account in layers one and two. Measurement Related Questions Q. Are the estimates restricted to the U.S? The estimates are based on the worldwide Internet-related sales of US-based companies. Cisco's foreign Internet sales are included in this number because Cisco is a US-based company. Q. Do the Indicators include any measurements of Internet usage by number of users or volume of traffic? The Internet Economy Indicator does not measure Internet activity by user or volume of traffic, but measures Internet activity from a revenue and employee perspective. Q. Will the Internet Economy Indicators be adjusted for inflation and in real terms? Yes, over the course of the next several months, as the Indicators are measured every three months, we do intend to develop an economic model that adjusts for inflation and measures real growth. Our goal is to develop as quickly as possible a model that will allow us to adjust Internet revenue growth in a way that accounts for all of the unique economic realities of the Internet Economy. For example, before we are able to adjust the revenue and employee estimates for the Internet Economy, we need to have a better understanding of how the Internet ecosystem works. The rate of new company and new product announcements, as well as the rate of mergers and acquisitions makes the measurement of this economy a moving target. Also, we need to take into account the profound impact that technology has had on typical econometrics, in that rapidly expanding economic growth is accompanied by rapidly decreasing costs for technology. Creating reasonable economic adjusters becomes even more complicated that as technology costs are decreasing, computing power and communications bandwidth are increasing. Q. How accurate is the estimate of the Internet Economy? Based upon our four-layer taxonomy, we believe that the estimates for each layer are very accurate. To compile our estimates, we completed research on just over 3,000 U.S. based companies that currently operate in the Internet Economy. In addition, we estimated revenues and employees from close to 300 of the larger technology companies by reviewing annual reports and looking at company web sites and product/service offerings. Finally, we leveraged existing market data that included secondary research reports from IDC, Dataquest, Forrester, Del'Oro, Cahners In-Stat, IntelliQuest and many other technology research firms. Q. Will this be an ongoing measurement? The goal of this massive research undertaking is to provide quarterly updates of the Internet Economy Indicators. Since this economy can change so radically overnight, quarterly estimates will be very important for understanding the Internet Economy and the Internet Ecosystem. The ongoing measurements will expand beyond simply measuring revenues and employees and will dig deeper into understanding how this economy operates. Q. How are the four indicators combined into one employment number and one revenue number? The four indicators are combined into one number by estimating and eliminating the overlap and double counting of revenues across all four layers. Q. Are the Internet Economy Indicators comparable to GDP or GNP? It is not a straight comparison. The gross domestic product or gross national product is based on value of goods and services produced in the U.S., minus any direct or indirect taxes. The Internet Economy Indicators only measure total revenues and jobs. Our long-term goal is to create an index that mirrors GDP. Q. What if a company generates revenues in more than one indicator layer? Are the revenues broken out by layer? Yes, but there is a complexity in terms of assigning revenues and employees to each layer, since companies don't report revenues or employees this way. Across the board we were faced with the challenge of identifying what portion of a company's revenues were Internet-related. For some companies, it was simple because they were pure Internet companies. Companies like Amazon.com, Vignette, eBay or NetObjects are all 100-percent Internet companies. In addition, many of these Internet 'pure-plays' only operate within one of the Internet Economy layers. For other companies, attributing revenues to the Internet was much more complicated. These companies are not 100 percent Internet companies, and they generate revenues in more than one of the Internet Economy layers. For example, IBM generates revenues in the infrastructure layer one from its ISP business as well as from PC, server and networking equipment. In the applications layer, IBM generates revenues from its E-business software and consulting services. In the Internet commerce layer, IBM generates revenues from its ShopIBM.com commerce site. For companies playing at multiple layers, in any layer we only count revenues that are attributable to products and services in that layer. In order to combine the revenues across all layers, we take out the Internet commerce revenues for players whose products/services are counted at infrastructure and/or applications layers and who also sell some or all of these online. Q. Does the estimate of the number of employees include Internet-related employees at non-Internet companies? Yes. The research did not focus solely on 100-percent Internet companies, or companies that generated 100 percent of their revenues from the Internet. We looked at all companies that were generating all or some part of their revenues from Internet or Internet-related products or services. Therefore we counted Internet-related employees from traditional bricks-and-mortar companies like Barnes and Noble or Lands End. Q. Is it double counting to include finished PC's and servers as well as their operating systems? Won't the value of the operating systems (with a mark-up) be reflected in the price of the box? Yes. For example, we only counted revenues associated with servers and desktops leaving out operating systems. Similarly we did not count OEM modems as they are a part of the PC, and took care to consider branded modems that are sold separately. Q. How do you account for the revenues from computer manufacturers? Do you count all of their revenues? No. Since we know that not all home PCs are purchased and used for Internet access and because we know that not all corporate PCs have access to the Internet, we adjusted the revenues attributed to the Internet Economy based upon the estimated percent of PCs sold in 1998 that were purchased for Internet access. For example, we know from IDC research estimates that approximately 90% of all PCs purchased for the home in 1998 are being used for Internet access. In the corporate world, that estimate is approximately 50% of all PCs purchased. Therefore, we accounted for PC revenues using the percentage of those PCs that were used for Internet access. Q. Are there examples of companies who have revenues from a product or service counted in more than one layer? If so, how do you account for this in the total number with out double counting? Yes, there are companies that have revenues counted in more than one layer. However, this only occurs between layers one through three and layer four. For example, adjusted revenues from Dell Computer's sales of PCs are included in the infrastructure layer and are also accounted for in the Internet commerce layer due to online PC sales. When we estimate the total revenues from the Internet Economy, we remove from the commerce layer the double counted revenues for any company that also has revenues from the same product or service in the other layers. Q. Explain how this is a global study. It measures the world-wide revenues of U.S.-based companies. Q. How will you handle changes in data collection and/or research methodology over time? For significant changes, we will revise our previous estimates. Q. How did you define your universe? Based on our knowledge of the types and categories of companies that make the Internet possible, we began compiling a list of the companies that we know participate in the Internet Economy. We operated on the following premise: If you are participating in the Internet Economy, you had better be on the World Wide Web. Using that premise, the Web was the ideal tool for building a database of companies that participate in the Internet Economy. Using the layered conceptual model, we generated extensive lists from Yahoo, Excite, HotBot and other directory services. We searched through the lists to ensure that we did not miss the big players who may account for the larger share of revenues in a subcategory within a layer. Since most Web directories only provide URL links, we realized that it would be extremely time consuming to link to each company's web site to get their contact information. In order to expedite the development of a contact database, we wrote database code to pull the company name and URL from the search directory listings. We then wrote additional code that matched each URL against the Internet Domain Registry database. What could have taken a potential 1,000 man hours was accomplished in 16 hours using the Web and web-based technology. Using the same "you've got to be on the Web" premise, we found an extremely valuable database of secure site URLs from a UK-based company called Netcraft. This database was used to create the universe estimate for companies conducting Internet transactions. This was the most appropriate and accurate sampling method to conduct the first large-scale supply-side estimate of Internet commerce revenues. Q. What elements could you be missing in your definition of the Internet economy? We believe that our estimates are conservative and could in the future include revenues and employees from other companies that may be generating Internet-related revenues. For example, we have not considered wireless technologies in the Infrastructure layer as it appeared to be a relatively small part of the IP infrastructure. This is likely to change in the near future. The applications and intermediary layers have been enumerated quite exhaustively. At the commerce layer, we feel very comfortable about the universe as defined by Web sites with secure sockets layers as well as large listings from Yahoo and other directory services. We are confident that our universe is the most comprehensive listing relative to other studies that have focused only on the top 100 players. Q. What will you do if a foreign company were to acquire a major U.S. player? For the moment we will go back and revise our estimates to date. However, in the long run, this study will include International Internet Economy estimates as well. Therefore, when these types of acquisitions or mergers take place, the net effect on the global Internet Economy will be zero. The revenues will be accounted for regardless of country of origin. Q. How did you come up with the 4 layers? In order to measure the Internet Economy we looked at a logical way in which the Internet is structured and how businesses operate on the Internet. We noticed that empirical studies in the Internet market focused almost exclusively on Web-based transactions. While the volume of transactions is an important aspect of the Internet economy, we recognized the crucial role of electronic intermediaries in market making, providing trust and assurance services. This led to separating intermediary-based transactions from direct buyer-seller transactions. In other words, these Internet middlemen have a catalytic effect on the proliferation of Internet commerce. In fact, we expect this layer to increase very rapidly along with the transaction layer in the near future. Having considered transactions and intermediaries, we asked ourselves: what else does it take to conduct Internet commerce? Network infrastructure and applications were the obvious choices. Accordingly we created the Internet infrastructure and applications layers, which provide the technological feasibility of online commerce. Q. Did you count 100 percent of the revenues from all networking equipment manufacturers? No. Using available estimates of the percent of corporate PCs that are networked and were purchased for use on the Internet, we adjusted the actual revenues from networking equipment manufacturers attributed to the Internet economy. For example we know that approximately 50% of all PCs purchased for businesses in 1998 have Internet connectivity. Using these types of deflators we attributed networking equipment and Internet access device revenues as follows:
Revenues are relatively easy to measure and understand, and is consistent with previous studies. Jobs are an equally important indictor, but are more difficult to measure because of the overlap between Internet and non-Internet jobs. To create an index comparable to GDP, we will have to measure value added within each of the layers. While it is an extremely complex task, it can be done with the help of sufficient resources and extensive data collection effort. Findings Related Questions Q. What types of companies contributed most to the Internet Economy? Given the nascent state of the Internet economy, it is not surprising that a few infrastructure players like Cisco, IBM, Sun, Compaq, Dell and Oracle contributed most significantly to the Internet economy. We expect this trend to continue; however, with the proliferation of the infrastructure, bricks-and-mortar companies selling products and services will most likely play an increasingly significant role at the commerce layer. Q. If you perform a quick calculation, it appears that the 'Internet Economy' makes up 4 percent of U.S. GDP. Is that a close assessment of the impact of the Internet on the economy? Since GDP measures accounting value added, we need to be careful not to do a direct comparison of GDP and total revenues. If a manufacturer sells a product to a retailer over the Internet, and if the retailer also sells the same product online, we will over-count revenues by simply adding the manufacturer’s and the retailer’s revenues. A GDP calculation would avoid such a problem. Having said that, it is true that in four short years (1995-1998) the Internet Economy, broadly defined to include the Internet infrastructure, has generated significant economic activity. We believe that we will see a dramatic increase in these numbers over the next few years as more economic activity gets shifted from traditional channels to the Internet and extranets. Q. What do these findings say about the Internet Ecosystem? If you consider the two lowest layers as inputs to the Internet economy and treat the two uppermost layers as representing the output, it is evident that the inputs are as big as the outputs. However, this does not appear bad given that the infrastructure is still maturing, much like a toddler taking its first steps. You cannot expect a lot of business activity in a remote shopping mall that is not conveniently connected by an efficient highway system. Layers 1 and 2 reflect the highway and the shopping mall complex, and related investments are a prerequisite for the overall development in this Internet economy. So the numbers seem to suggest that while we are in the very early stages of the Internet Economy, we are moving in the right direction. Q. What trends do you expect across the different layers over time? All four layers should experience rapid growth. A lot more investments will be made in the infrastructure in the coming years. Ultimately, however, layers 3 and 4 have to grow bigger than 1 and 2 for the Internet economy to be considered productive. Q. Are you most likely underestimating or overestimating the figures? Our estimates are highly conservative. Further, there are online revenues that were not attributed to any layer. For example, if you spend $500 to buy an airline ticket through an online travel agency, the only revenue that is counted is the commission associated with the ticket sales. While travel agencies report the commission as their revenue, we will consider the feasibility of expanding the scope of the intermediary layer to include all sales that were made through electronic intermediaries. Q. What is the unified revenue number from all four layers of the Internet Economy? We estimate that the Internet Economy is approximately a $301.4 billion dollar economy today. The total revenues from each of the Internet Economy Indicators totals $331.39 billion U.S. dollars. The $301.4 billion dollar estimate was arrived at by removing estimated double counting of revenues between the commerce layer and the other layers and estimate the overlap or double counting to be between $23.3 billion and $31 billion. It is important to understand the distinction between the Internet Economy revenues and 'high-tech' revenues. The Internet Economy Indicators measured Internet or Internet-related revenues only and did not include revenues for non-Internet business activities. For example, not all of Cisco's revenues are counted since not all networked PCs actually have Internet access. Q. What is the unified number of jobs from all four layers of the Internet Economy? The attributed jobs for the Internet Economy is estimated to be 1.2 million jobs. The total attributed jobs for all four layers totals 1.33 million jobs, and when we account for the estimated overlap of revenues and activities we adjusted the number to 1.2 million jobs. It is important to note here again that these are jobs directly attributed to Internet related revenues. These jobs include IT staff, marketing, sales and any other person who might be involved in driving Internet-related revenues. Q. What percent of the Internet Economy revenues is U.S. versus worldwide? The Internet Economy Indicators focused strictly on U.S. companies and their total worldwide Internet-related revenues. The average breakout of U.S. versus worldwide sales for some of the larger companies in the study is approximately 75% U.S. and 25% non-U.S. However, since the majority of the Internet Economy is made up of small privately held companies, a much larger portion of the revenue number is U.S. based. A rough estimate is that the ratio should be closer to 85% U.S. and 15% non-US. Q. What percent of the Internet Economy jobs are U.S. based and what percent are non-U.S.? This number is harder to estimate than the revenue numbers. Since we have attributed employees using the ratio of Internet-related revenues to total worldwide revenues, a reasonable assumption would be to use the same ration of U.S. to worldwide revenues. Therefore, a rough estimate would be that approximately 85% of the attributed jobs are U.S. based and 15% are non-U.S. jobs. Care should be taken when making this type of estimate since we have attributed jobs, and as there is not necessarily a one-to-one relationship between revenues and employees as they relate to U.S. versus non-U.S. proportions. Q. What percent of the Internet Economy revenues did not exist before January 1, 1995? Using 1995 as the base year for when the Internet Economy took off is a very reasonable assumption. Zona Research estimated that there was approximately $5.3 billion dollars in Internet and Intranet related revenues in 1995. Their measure was similar to the Internet Economy Indicators and serves as a reasonable estimate of Internet Economy in 1995. Since we focused entirely on Internet-related revenues, it is reasonable to assume that a very small amount of the Internet Economy revenue existed before 1995. Many of the companies that we measured had significant revenue well before 1995, but note that this revenue was not Internet-related. Using the 1995 number of $5.3 billion and our estimate of $301.4 billion in 1998, the Internet Economy grew at a compounded annual growth rate of 174%. By comparison, worldwide GDP estimates grew at a CAGR of 3.8%. Since the Internet Economy Indicators measure revenues differently than GDP estimates, we can use some assumptions to make the numbers more similar. If we assume that the infrastructure and applications layers are the inputs for the Internet economy and that the intermediary and transaction layers are the outputs, we can crudely approximate a GDP number of $150 billion for the Internet Economy. Using this smaller number, the Internet Economy still grew at a CAGR of 131%. Q. How many high-tech jobs are in the US? This question can have several answers depending upon how you define 'high-tech.' When the federal government measures high-tech jobs, they include R&D companies, engineering, mathematics, telecommunications and information services. These job numbers include all employees at those companies. We estimate that this number is around 5.9 million employees. If we focus specifically on just IT jobs, meaning persons employed in an IT capacity at any U.S. company, there are several estimates available from the BLS and other research companies. The BLS estimates that in 1998 there were about 1.5 million IT jobs in the US. The Information Technology Association of America estimates that in 1998 there were 3.3 million IT jobs, which includes programmers, systems analysts, and computer engineers. Q. What were the total high-tech revenues worldwide for 1998? We have not been able to find a solid worldwide estimate for high-tech revenues. If you add together the revenues from the companies that we studied in the U.S., we estimate the worldwide revenue to be approximately $1.9 trillion U.S. dollars. This number was estimated using actual reported worldwide revenues from our research and other high-tech companies that were not in our Internet Economy research. Q. Who else has attempted to track this data? To the best of our knowledge, nobody has attempted to measure revenues and jobs and in the Internet Economy as thoroughly as our study. However, IDC, Forrester, IntelliQuest, Zona Research and others have looked at different components of the Internet Economy. Most research in the technology industry focuses on total revenues and does not attempt to separate Internet-related revenues from non-Internet revenues. Q. How much did this study cost? Cisco made a substantial investment in trying to understand how the Internet Economy operates and this first wave of the research represents the first installment of that investment. Cisco also recognizes that the current level of investment is just scratching the surface of understanding the Internet Economy and intends to continue investing in research related to the Internet Economy. To get an idea of the type of investment required to truly research the Internet Economy, the U.S. government's Bureau of Economic Analysis has asked for a fiscal year 2000 appropriation of $49 million, which includes $4.5 million dollars for new measurement tools to understand the 'new millennium economy' as they refer to it. Personnel Related Questions Q. How many man hours have gone into this research? Approximately 3,000 people hours were used to measure the Internet Economy. This all occurred within a three month time horizon. A large team of research experts from across the US, using the Internet as a communications and research tool, combined to conduct the research. The research team consisted of the professors and graduate students from the University of Texas at Austin Business School, research consultants from Cunningham Communications and outside research experts and analysts. In addition, primary research expertise was brought in from MarketVision Research, which specializes in econometrics based research. Jon Pinnell, the lead marketing scientist from MarketVision is a recognized expert in research in the technology industry and also in statistical sampling and modeling. University of Texas: Anitesh Barua, Ph.D. Andrew Whinston, Ph.D. Ramesh Rao, DBA, Associate Dean for Graduate Programs A team of four graduate students Communications Cunningham Communications: Jay Shutter, VP of Research Brant Wilson, Ph.D. (Research consultant and analyst) Market Vision Research: Jon Pinnell, EVP of Research and Senior Marketing Scientist Q. Why was UT selected to do this research? UT's Center for Research on Electronic Commerce is an internationally acclaimed research body in the area of electronic commerce. Andrew Whinston, the Center's director, is widely regarded as a academic pioneer of Electronic Commerce. Whinston and his team have been engaged in cutting edge research in this area for well over 5 years. Furthermore, UT's Information Technology program is consistently ranked as a top 5 program in all national surveys. UT's "techno-MBA" program was ranked second in the nation, according to a Computerworld study. This study was coordinated by the Office of the Graduate Business Dean (OGBD) under the leadership of Associate Dean Dr. Ramesh Rao. Q. Briefly describe the expertise of the UT professors and their Center. Dr. Andrew Whinston is the Director of the Center for Research on Electronic Commerce at the Graduate School of Business at the University of Texas at Austin, and is a pioneer in and widely recognized authority in the field of electronic commerce. Dr. Anitesh Barua is the Associate Director of the Center for Research on Electronic Commerce and is a leading authority in the area of measuring the business value of Information Technology investments. UT's Center for Research on Electronic Commerce (C-REC) is an internationally acclaimed research body in the area of electronic commerce. Many pioneering research studies on Internet service pricing, electronic supplier selection strategies, content pricing, experimental electronic markets and digital products have been conducted at the Center. Associate Dean Ramesh Rao of the Office of the Graduate Business Dean at UT is coordinating their joint research project with Cisco. Dr. Rao was responsible for arranging the partnership with the Graduate School of Business. |